VA丨为什么维生素A市场如疯狂 ?

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楼主 2018-10-14 17:29:35
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本文源自Feedinfo报道


2017年10月31日,BASF柠檬醛工厂发生的火灾对全球食品以及饲料市场维生素A的供应造成了持续严重的影响。受此次事故的影响,BASF宣布了一系列产品的不可抗力声明,涉及的产品包括柠檬醛以及柠檬醛下游中间体。

2017年11月10日,BASF宣布了VA和VE的不可抗力声明。

迄今为止,BASF是世界最大的柠檬醛生产商,其在德国的柠檬醛工厂为世界大部分香精香料公司供应关键的原料以及中间体。这个工厂同时生产维生素A 的前体。事实上,BASF是世界第二大维生素A生产商,BASF维生素A的全球市场份额达到了 26%。此外,BASF为同样安迪苏提供VA1000的前体。预计安迪苏饲料VA的全球场份额15%。


BASF 同样为中国金达威提供生产维生素 A 的中间体。此外,一般情况下,浙江医药也向BASF购买柠檬醛或者柠檬醛的下游中间体。按照上述分析,显然全球大约40%~45%的饲料维生素A的供应受到了影响。值得注意的是,BASF是世界最大的饲料维生素A供应商(第二大生产商)。

BASF此次事故发生前,饲料维生素 A 的全球市场已经比较紧张了。今年夏天,中国环保督察组的巡视以及一些新的环境方面政策的出台,使得中国生产商维生素A的产出减少了很多。在此期间,中国生产商的维生素A报价比欧洲生产商高,所以今年第四季度的很多订单被欧洲生产商签掉。

此外,DSM宣布将延长其停产检修计划。他们通知用户,DSM 的产品供应最终会受到一定的影响。BASF 同样也会在 2017 年第四季度进行停产检修。

欧盟的新法规要求供应商替换维生素 A 的抗氧化剂-乙氧基喹啉(EQ),这更加加重了维生素 A的供应压力。

目前市场上维生素A的供应特别紧张,未来几周一些预混料生产商将会非常缺乏维生素A。一些终端用户被告知,原定今年第四季度交货的订单会被推迟到2018第一季度执行。在欧洲,一些在寻找即期交货货源的预混料生产商表示,只有极个别贸易商能提供限量的维生素A,这维生素A的报价高达EUR160.00/KG。

这种情况什么时候能改善?


目前,全球市场仅有三个独立的柠檬醛供应链:BASF、NHU和日本Kuraray,日本Kuraray不生产维生素 A。DSM维生素A的生产不需要用柠檬醛,DSM 的饲料维生素 A 的市场份额为30%。然而,DSM维生素A产能的65%~70%是用来供应自己的预混料厂。这意味着,未来几周内全球预混料生产商所需维生素A将极度依赖于NHU、DSM的直销以及ZMC有限的供应。

一些终端用户表示,他们收到通知说BASF的柠檬醛工厂的供货要到2018年三月份之后才能正常。事故发生之后,BASF 声明维修工作需要持续数周。

在 2016年9月7日,BASF马来西亚石油化学公司声明,位于马来西亚关丹的新柠檬醛工厂的设备安装完毕。然而,这个工厂的产能迄今为止都没达到预期的目标,而且不能立即缓解全球柠檬市场现在面临的严峻形势。

基于以上的因素,预计全球饲料维生素A市场的严峻形势至少要到2018年下半年才能有所缓解。
原文如下:


Vitamin A – Why is the Market in Chaos?


Source: Feedinfo News Service

(dated 13/11/2017) 


13 November 2017- The fire which occurred at BASF's citral plant on 31 October 2017 has had very serious repercussions on the supply of vitamin A to the global food and feed markets. As a consequence of this incident, BASF declared force majeure on a number of products including citral and several key downstream intermediates.


On 10 November 2017, BASF also declared force majeure on vitamins A and E.


BASF are by far the world’s largest citral producer. Their citral facility in Germany supplies key raw materials and intermediates to the world’s largest Aroma and Fragrance companies.


This plant also produces precursors for vitamin A production. In fact, BASF are the second largest vitamin A producer in the world with their output serving approximately 26% of the global vitamin A feedgrade sector. In addition, BASF also supply a key precursor to Adisseo which they require to manufacture vitamin A 1000 feedgrade. It is estimated that Adisseo have around 15% share of the global vitamin A feedgrade market.

Traditionally BASF have also supplied Chinese Kingdomway with an intermediate which they need for vitamin A manufacture. Also, in normal market conditions, China’s ZMC could also source citral or a downstream raw material from BASF.


Based on the above it becomes apparent that around 40 – 45% of the global vitamin A feedgrade market is currently supplied by precursors which are manufactured in BASF’s citral facility in Germany. It should also be noted that BASF are the world’s largest supplier of straight vitamin A feedgrade.


The global vitamin A feedgrade market was already tight before the BASF incident on 31 October 2017. Vitamin A output in China was significantly disrupted during the summer as a result of inspections relating to environmental issues and new regulations. During this period forward quotations from Chinese suppliers were consistently above those of Western origin and as a consequence the latter sources contracted substantial volumes for Q4 2017.


In addition, the world’s largest vitamin A producer DSM announced that they would undergo extended maintenance shutdown’s during 2017 and late 2018. They told customers that product availability would be affected as a result. BASF also planned a maintenance shutdown during Q4 2017.


New EU regulations requiring the replacement of Ethoxyquin (EQ) as a stabilizer in vitamin A feedgrade formulations also disrupted production and added to existing pressure in the supply chain.


 Currently supply to the market is extremely tight with concerns that some premixers may face a physical shortage during the coming weeks. Some end users have been told that a portion of their Q4 2017 contracts will be delivered during Q1 2018. Others say they have been promised delivery schedules will be respected.


In Europe, some premixers searching for product for urgent delivery say strictly limited volumes are being offered by some brokers at levels of up to EUR 160.00 Kg.


When will it improve? 


There are just three independent supply chains for citral on the global market: BASF, NHU, and Japanese Kuraray.  The latter company does not manufacturer vitamin A. DSM do not require citral for vitamin A production and have approximately 30% of the global vitamin A feedgrade market. However, it is estimated that approximately 65 – 70% of DSM’s vitamin A output serves their captive premix demand. This means that during the coming weeks the premix sector will rely heavily on NHU, DSM straight sales and minor volumes from ZMC.

Some end users say they have been informed that supply from the BASF citral facility will not become normalized before March 2018. Just after the incident BASF stated that repairs may take several weeks.

On September 7, 2016 BASF PETRONAS Chemicals announced the mechanical completion of their new citral facility in Kuantan, Malaysia. However, this plant has so far struggled to reach planned output and unfortunately this will not immediately alleviate the critical situation which the global citral market is now facing.

 Based on the above factors, the global vitamin A feedgrade market is expected to remain extremely difficult until at least end H1 2018.



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